Research Suggests We’re Passing “Peak Obesity”; Weight-Loss Drugs Are Likely Reason

By Thierry Malleret, economist

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a remarkable example of health and tech innovation that seems to be leading to a stunning reversal in obesity rates. New data shows an unprecedented decline in obesity levels, which fell about 2 percentage points between 2020 and 2023. The new study used weight and height measurements taken by medical examiners, not self-reported values, making it far more reliable. While there isn’t absolute certainty that GLP-1s are responsible, Malleret explains why it’s highly likely. Innovation and technology did something almost “overnight” that would have taken policy and regulations decades to do. He also explains how the new drugs will change the wellness industry in far-reaching ways.

Ozempic and other GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a remarkable example of health innovation that benefitted from tech innovation (notably using molecular engineering and AI in clinical trials). In a stunning reversal, new data suggests that we might have passed, or are about to pass, peak obesity. Until very recently, official projections took it as a given that obesity rates would continue to stubbornly climb in the coming decades and would most likely accelerate. But newly released data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey shows an unprecedented decline in obesity levels: they fell about 2 percentage points between 2020 and 2023. Critically, this survey uses weight and height measurements taken by medical examiners, not self-reported values, making it far more reliable than others.

This coincides with the period during which clinical trials started with the new generation of diabetes and weight-loss drugs that for the first time produced large and sustained reductions in body weight; and while there is no certainty that these new drugs are behind this reversal, it is highly likely. The reasons are twofold: (1) the decline is steepest among the group most likely to be using them (college graduates), and (2) in Denmark—the country where Ozempic and Wegovy were created—obesity rates slowed sharply during the same period, even declining among several age groups.

If sustained, it will be amazing to observe that such an enduring and terrible trend could be so easily and unexpectedly reversed. Regulation policies would have taken decades to do so. Innovation and technology did it almost “overnight.”

GLP-1’s PROFOUND AND DISRUPTING IMPACT ON WELLNESS:

Weight-loss drugs will change wellness behaviours and the wellness industry in far-reaching ways. Two notable examples come to mind.

(1) Diet and weight-loss legacy companies will be eviscerated, as WW International (formerly WeightWatchers) shows. Its stock price is down 90% for the year, its CEO has left and, ominously, Oprah Winfrey left the board in February. WW has now a market value of just $68 million, and it’s hard to imagine what its future, if any, might be (beyond its recent move to sell copycat versions of the drugs, just like any other online pharmacy.)

(2) As weight-loss drugs cause muscle loss alongside fat loss, people increasingly favour strength training over cardio. This will make the current configuration of gyms and health clubs—over-abundant cardio equipment at the center with the smallish weight area along the edges—obsolete, forcing them to adjust and rethink part of their business model. This change will take time and money: cardio machines tend to be sold on multiyear leases, while strength training equipment requires an upfront investment.